Houston Republic

Citizens armed with better information, less repeated dire warnings and allowed to make their own risk assessments could have lessened the wider impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a leading Houston commentator.

Comparative risk was hardly discussed by public officials and the media over the last year, Bill King, author, businessman and former mayoral candidate, told the Houston Republic.

King spoke as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the Houston metropolitan area continues to drop from a high of more than 4,000 in mid-January, along with hospitalizations and the reproduction, or R, rate. More than 565,000 vaccinations have been administered, including about 243,000 second doses.

According to the latest figures, the average daily number of positive results was 930 last week, while the R number was .68 on Feb. 22, marking 21 days under one. R is the number of people one person with the novel coronavirus will infect, on average.

Reviewing how Houston public officials have handled the crisis and the reporting, King believes the measures taken did not contain the spread to the extent that has been announced, including in the media.

"I do not think they had much effect on the ultimate outcome," King said, further arguing that the comparative risk was rarely discussed and that keeping the alert level at red for so many months made that system effectively useless.

"I think the media and public officials delivered the most dire messages to effect behavior, and can make the argument it was the right or wrong thing to do," he said. "But I feel it would have been better for people to be given accurate information and be allowed to assess risk."

King believes it was understandable drastic steps were taken at the beginning of the pandemic crisis because "everybody was shooting in the dark."

But as the pandemic continued, it was "pretty apparent those at risk were old and sick people," he added.

"The messaging was that all elderly were at risk, but half of the over-65s that died were people in nursing homes, where the average life expectancy at any time is 22 months," King said. "There was very little risk to healthy 65-year-olds, and the risk is astonishingly small for people not extremely old."

He added that the younger people who died often had high body mass index (BMI). King also cited one trauma center contact who said many of those seriously ill and were not older were "very, very obese."

"Risk comparison was not discussed in the media and there has been a lot of collateral damage, more suicides, mental health issues, alcohol abuse, a drop in childhood vaccinations and in cancer screenings," King said.

He added there is "almost zero chance" that public officials or the media will admit or even question the approach, and that when the virus is finally under control there will be congratulations all round.

It will be under control with the vaccine rollout and herd immunity, he said.

"I think the rollout is going incredibly well, with the federal government taking right approach, shipping to the states" [and letting them get on with the job], King said. "Although I do think more can be done for the underserved communities."